COASTAL FLOODING IN BANGKOK AND METROPOLITAN AREA UNDER SRES CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
Bangkok is one of the vulnerable coastal flood cities in the world as reported by the OECD. (Organisation for Economics Co-operation and Development). The present study aims to assess the impacts of future floods in Bangkok and Metropolitan area due to sea level rise according to SRES climate change scenarios. In addition, future land subsidence of these areas was also included in the study. The coupling between Mike11 and Mike21 models were used to compute the flood depth, current speed, and flood inundation area. The past flood event in the year 2002 was used to calibrate the model with fairly good accuracy. Then, the model was used to simulate the flood behaviors in the year 2050 using the 1995 flood magnitude with the forcing inputs from the regional climate model. Results showed a clear picture of potential coastal flood risk, especially along 5-10 km inland from the present coastline. The maximum flood depth of 1.8 m was found along the coastline. The maximum flood penetration is about 30 km inland with less than 50 cm flood depth. These findings may be useful for policy makers in initiation of response measures for long term flood mitigation.
Key words: SRES Climate Change Scenario B1, A1FI, Mike11, Mike21, flood depth, flood inundation.